← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Sesma
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 36% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 30% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 57% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 43% | 3.20 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Zaid Romero · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · Villarreal CF |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tani Oluwaseyi · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Coliseum |
| coach days | 1050.00 | 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1607.76 | 1751.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.97 | -26.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.88 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.62 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.77 |