← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Ruiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 33% | 4.00 | value: +30% |
| Levante UD win | 17% | 12% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Levante UD −0.75 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟥 | Alan Matturro · Levante UD |
| 29' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 34' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jeremy Toljan · Levante UD |
| 81' | ⚽ | Unai Elgezabal · Levante UD |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nico Serrano · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alejandro Rego Mora · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Ander Olasagasti · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Navarro · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 1348.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1687.40 | 1607.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.64 | 35.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -1.24 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 27.53 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.18 |