← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Martinez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 39% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 36% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 25% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 74% | 66% | 1.29 | fair |
| Over | 26% | 34% | 3.75 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |