← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 78% | 64% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 24% | 7.00 | value: +66% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 9% | 12% | 11.00 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Real Madrid CF −1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ilias Akhomach · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟥 | Josep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1933.96 | 1636.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.18 | -44.68 |
| eye test v1 | 1.69 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 51.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.71 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 29.58 |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.22 |