← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ruiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 73% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.25 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 12% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Elche CF +1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Barcelona +1.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 69% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 30 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |