← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: R. De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 36% | 29% | 2.63 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 35% | 46% | 2.70 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Victor Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 70' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days |
| 214.00 |
| 822.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1668.79 | 1741.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.82 | -42.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 25.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 25.30 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.94 |