← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Jan 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 44% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +30% |
| Getafe CF win | 25% | 18% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Thomas Lemar · Girona |
| 25' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Luis Vázquez · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Girona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fran Beltrán · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Roca · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Satriano · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vitor Reis · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| coach days | 209.00 | 1031.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1632.94 | 1583.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.93 | -36.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 28.85 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.66 |