← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Sanchez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 72% | 80% | 1.30 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.25 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 10% | 8% | 9.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca −1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 64% | 1.73 | value: +10% |
| Under | 45% | 36% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Metropolitano Stadium |