← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Sesma
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +10% |
| CA Osasuna win | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 38' | 🟨 | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedro Diaz · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Jozhua Vertrouwd · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Asier Osambela · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 207.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1654.06 | 1651.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.33 | 5.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.81 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.64 | 29.41 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.21 |