← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 23, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 43% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +11% |
| Elche CF win | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Levante UD −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Álvaro Rodriguez · Elche CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pablo Martínez · Levante UD |
| 55' | 🟨 | Léo Pétrot · Elche CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD |
| 71' | 🟨 | André Silva · Elche CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Boayar · Elche CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alan Matturro · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| coach days | 114.00 | 571.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1592.83 | 1617.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.95 | -5.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 25.60 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.14 |