← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Busquets
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 51% | 31% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 44% | 3.30 | value: +45% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 20% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Abanca Balaídos |