← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Diaz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Getafe CF win | 39% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 26% | 2.75 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 26% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 70% | 60% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand