← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 54% | 49% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +13% |
| Oviedo win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CA Osasuna −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 50% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Kwasi Sibo · Oviedo |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo |
| 36' | 🟨 | David Costas · Oviedo |
| 40' | ⚽ | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 68' | ⚽ | Alberto Reina · Oviedo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolas Fonseca · Oviedo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| Victor Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 200.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1645.33 | 1548.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.40 | -0.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.19 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.23 |