← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Guzman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 44% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mallorca +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
| 5' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 8' | ⚽ | Unai Gómez · Athletic Club |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marash Kumbulla · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 42' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · Athletic Club |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 70' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 21 |
| 9 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| 🟨 |
| Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 70' | 🟥 | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 73' | 🟨 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 108.00 | 1326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1610.54 | 1701.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.29 | -7.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.27 |