← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 50% | 59% | 1.90 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Girona win | 22% | 15% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Girona −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Joel Roca · Girona |
| 31' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Omar El Hilali · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rubén Sánchez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 76' | 🟨 | Paulo Gazzaniga · Girona |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jofre Carreras · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 82' | 🟨 | Antoniu Roca · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Girona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Carlos Romero · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 199.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1686.77 | 1612.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.47 | 14.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.11 | 27.57 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.12 |