← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 50% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +6% |
| Mallorca win | 20% | 21% | 4.93 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Mallorca −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 15' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica · Mallorca |
| 30' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 58' | 🟨 | Toni Lato · Mallorca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 80' | 🟥 | Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pablo Torre · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 194.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1658.39 | 1617.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.42 | 0.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.66 | 28.83 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.21 |