← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 38% | 36% | 2.61 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 32% | 34% | 3.07 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Aitor Fernández · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | ⚽ | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 70' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Roca · Girona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lancinet Kourouma · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kike Barja · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| coach days | 193.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1645.07 | 1698.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.52 | 21.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.54 | 29.06 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.08 |