← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Maria Eugenia Gil, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 49% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 33% | 24% | 3.03 | fair |
| Oviedo win | 18% | 20% | 5.48 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo −0.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 72% | 55% | 1.34 | fair |
| Over | 28% | 45% | 3.40 | value: +52% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 56' | ⚽ | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
| 75' | 🟨 | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 75' | 🟥 | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Abdel Rahim · Oviedo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | 🟨 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 88' | 🟥 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |
| coach days | 95.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1608.92 | 1540.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.50 | -9.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 28.43 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.76 |