← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 54% | 62% | 1.79 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 20% | 16% | 5.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.99 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Matias Moreno · Levante UD |
| 37' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Iker Losada · Levante UD |
| 63' | 🟨 | Diego Pampín · Levante UD |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mathew Ryan · Levante UD |
| 77' | ⚽ | Carlos Espí · Levante UD |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeremy Toljan · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1625.53 | 1571.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.25 | -34.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 14.71 | 14.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 27.90 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.00 |