← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 42% | 48% | 2.30 | value: +10% |
| Elche CF win | 30% | 24% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Villarreal CF +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal CF |
| 13' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Martim Neto · Elche CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedro Bigas · Elche CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| coach days | 551.00 | 794.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1629.69 | 1772.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.99 | -27.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -1.03 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 26.71 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.36 |