← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 36% | 34% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 37% | 3.02 | value: +12% |
| CA Osasuna win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 34' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adama Boiro · Athletic Club |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 73' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| coach days | 186.00 | 1312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1655.54 | 1700.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.07 | -17.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 11.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.14 |