← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 47% | 29% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +6% |
| Valencia CF win | 24% | 39% | 4.16 | value: +61% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 51% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Valencia CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | José Copete · Valencia CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Javi Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jones El-Abdellaoui · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hugo Álvarez · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca Balaídos |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 186.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1709.76 | 1642.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.94 | 1.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.33 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 27.82 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.18 |