← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 46% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 41% | 2.88 | value: +17% |
| Getafe CF win | 21% | 24% | 4.68 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 72% | 58% | 1.34 | fair |
| Over | 28% | 42% | 3.40 | value: +41% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 53' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fran Pérez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 185.00 | 1007.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1698.45 | 1644.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.76 | -21.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 12.10 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 30.52 | 30.29 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.73 |