← Primera Division 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Athletic Club win | 51% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 20% | 25% | 4.87 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Athletic Club −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand