← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 80% | 80% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 7% | 7% | 13.73 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sevilla FC −2 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 69% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Raúl Asencio · Real Madrid CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 68' | 🟥 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1918.23 | 1629.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.41 | 4.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 27.67 |
| state index | 0.92 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.24 |