← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: César Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 43% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +8% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 58% | 1.40 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 42% | 3.20 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | Victor Parada · Deportivo Alavés |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 74' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Deportivo Alavés |
| 76' | 🟨 | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1641.98 | 1622.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.82 | -18.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.37 |