← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 48% | 41% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | value: +4% |
| Sevilla FC win | 24% | 29% | 4.13 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 46% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 54% | 2.26 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | César Tárrega · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | José Copete · Valencia CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Andres Castrin · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| ⚽ |
| Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 159.00 | 67.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1650.22 | 1614.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.29 | -24.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 44.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.91 |