← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 51% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 25% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 21' | 🟨 | Sergi Altimira · Real Betis Balompié |
| 31' | ⚽ | Roony Bardghji · FC Barcelona |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gerard Martín · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nelson Deossa · Real Betis Balompié |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de La Cartuja |
| 85' |
| ⚽ |
| Diego Llorente · Real Betis Balompié |
| 87' | 🟨 | Valentín Gómez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1953.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1820.96 | 1992.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.77 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 3.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 1.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 24.74 |
| state index | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 2.39 |