← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 76% | 85% | 1.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.64 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 9% | 5% | 11.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Barcelona −1.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 72% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Pablo Ibáñez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 8' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 26' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | 🟨 | Abderrahman Rebbach · Deportivo Alavés |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marc Bernal · FC Barcelona |
| 53' | 🟨 | Calebe Gonçalves · Deportivo Alavés |
| 81' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joan García · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1923.98 | 1620.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.87 | -19.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 27.85 |
| state index | 1.32 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.06 |