← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mallorca −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.46 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mateo Joseph · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 59' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 66' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | 🟨 | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| ⚽ |
| Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 59.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1617.07 | 1633.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.67 | -44.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.71 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.09 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.38 |