← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 68% | 77% | 1.40 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.56 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 14% | 10% | 7.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Elche CF +1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 69% | 1.51 | value: +5% |
| Under | 36% | 31% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Elche CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Álvaro Rodriguez · Elche CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Víctor Chust · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| coach days | 510.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1610.70 | 1954.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.21 | -0.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 13.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 22.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 2.09 |