← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.52 | value: +4% |
| Girona win | 16% | 15% | 6.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Girona −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Vitor Reis · Girona |
| 20' | ⚽ | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marc Bartra · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | ⚽ | Valentín Gómez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | 🟨 | Hugo Rincón · Girona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi · Girona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nelson Deossa · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
| 88' | 🟨 | Paulo Gazzaniga · Girona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio de La Cartuja |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1940.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1810.73 | 1627.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.78 | 9.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 1.33 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.38 |