← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 46% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.52 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 34' | 🟨 | Oriol Rey · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Copete · Valencia CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 79' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Ander Olasagasti · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matias Moreno · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 143.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1640.59 | 1601.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.40 | -15.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 12.10 | 13.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 27.28 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.46 |