← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 55% | 67% | 1.77 | value: +18% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 23% | 17% | 4.24 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| FC Barcelona +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 56% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 44% | 3.20 | value: +42% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 11' | ⚽ | Sergio Carreira · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí · FC Barcelona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 73' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 79' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 5 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca Balaídos |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Miguel Román · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1707.32 | 1929.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.89 | -1.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 13.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 1.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.83 |