← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 80% | 79% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 7.78 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 7% | 8% | 14.02 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Barcelona −2 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Elche CF −2 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 56% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 44% | 3.75 | value: +66% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Olímpic Lluís Companys |