← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 41% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 59% | 1.89 | value: +11% |
| Under | 48% | 41% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟥 | Unai Vencedor · Levante UD |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | ⚽ | Óscar Mingueza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jeremy Toljan · Levante UD |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kervin Arriaga · Levante UD |
| 69' | 🟨 | Unai Elgezabal · Levante UD |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carl Starfelt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergio Carreira · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Miguel Román · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 32.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1616.04 | 1676.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.22 | 34.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.91 | 27.30 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.77 |