← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 83% | 72% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 14% | 8.08 | value: +11% |
| Valencia CF win | 6% | 14% | 17.23 | value: +147% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valencia CF −2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Real Madrid CF −2.5 | 44% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 57% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 43% | 3.50 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |