← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 43% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 26% | 40% | 3.93 | value: +57% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 36% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |