← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 41% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 63% | 1.75 | value: +10% |
| Over | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ferran Jutglà · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ferran Jutglà · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Manu Fernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 53' | 🟨 | Damián Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 66' | 🟨 | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ferran Jutglà · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Abel Bretones · CA Osasuna |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 87' |
| ⚽ |
| Pablo Durán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 117.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1674.18 | 1664.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.05 | 13.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 28.73 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.53 |