← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: César Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 52% | 50% | 1.87 | fair |
| FC Barcelona win | 26% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Barcelona −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| -5' | 🟥 | Andriy Lunin · Real Madrid CF |
| -5' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| -5' | 🟨 | Alejandro Balde · FC Barcelona |
| 22' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 38' | ⚽ | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 55.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| elo | 2004.65 | 1985.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.39 | -35.35 |
| eye test v1 | 2.02 | 1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 3.84 | 4.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.31 | 1.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 24.60 |
| state index | 1.66 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 1.88 |