← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.74 | value: +23% |
| Oviedo win | 19% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Girona −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 39% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 61% | 2.03 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | David Carmo · Oviedo |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Vitor Reis · Girona |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ovie Ejaria · Oviedo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Oviedo |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Girona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 83' | ⚽ | Azzedine Ounahi · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| Santiago Colombatto · Oviedo |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Carmo · Oviedo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 116.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1584.57 | 1550.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.79 | -26.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.98 | 28.53 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.00 |