← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.62 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 24% | 22% | 4.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 50' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1625.65 | 1638.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.75 | 27.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 43.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.05 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.23 |