← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 64% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.04 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 17% | 14% | 5.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexis Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Gerard Martín · FC Barcelona |
| 20' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 36' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · FC Barcelona |
| 50' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sevilla FC |
| 81' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Akor Adams · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Akor Adams · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1673.47 | 2011.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.06 | 6.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 67.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.49 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.77 |