← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 42% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.04 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Elche CF −0.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 36% | 2.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jon Pacheco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 39' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 40' | 🟨 | Grady Diangana · Elche CF |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Vicente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 79' | 🟥 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Silva · Elche CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |
| coach days | 4.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1669.53 | 1660.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.85 | 35.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 28.79 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.60 |