← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 69% | 54% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | 5.38 | value: +35% |
| Villarreal CF win | 13% | 21% | 7.50 | value: +57% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Villarreal CF −1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 58% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 42% | 2.89 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Franco Mastantuono · Real Madrid CF |
| 47' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 73' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟥 | Santiago Mouriño · Villarreal CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 33.00 | 703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1989.04 | 1848.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.15 | 12.66 |
| eye test v1 | 2.26 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 1.58 |