← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 59% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mallorca −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 49% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 51% | 2.32 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · Mallorca |
| 48' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Athletic Club |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 77' | ⚽ | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alejandro Rego Mora · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · Athletic Club |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 🟨 |
| Leo Román · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1221.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1734.69 | 1608.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.90 | -3.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 28.58 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.01 |