← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 41% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 30% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Girona −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Alejandro Francés · Girona |
| 18' | ⚽ | Vladyslav Vanat · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitor Reis · Girona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Iván Martín · Girona |
| 57' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Iván Martín · Girona |
| 80' | 🟥 | Iván Martín · Girona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| Arnau Martínez · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1575.53 | 1663.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.18 | 12.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 3.84 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 28.38 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.09 |