← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 42% | 31% | 2.36 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 31% | 43% | 3.10 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +7% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Metropolitano Stadium |
| 62' | 🟨 | Álvaro Carreras · Real Madrid CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 82' | 🟨 | Giuliano Simeone · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Mastantuono · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 5049.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 6.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1869.70 | 2007.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.06 | 18.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 2.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 2.78 | 3.78 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.62 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 25.23 |
| state index | 1.14 | 1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 2.60 |