← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 45% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.18 | value: +19% |
| Levante UD win | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.5 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 51% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 49% | 2.63 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Levante UD |
| 26' | ⚽ | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 35' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Getafe CF |
| 57' | ⚽ | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Goduine Koyalipou · Levante UD |
| 82' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Etta Eyong · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Coliseum |
| coach days | 910.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1621.35 | 1615.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.85 | 1.18 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.45 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.53 | 1.67 |