← Primera Division 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 23, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 41% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 29% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 52% | 1.93 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand